Fire AggroTier 1
at GGG HVN Store Champs
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
9-3-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.1%
avg ELO +8.2 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1262
· range 1081–1563
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1232
Q3 1409
1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
